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Posted on: March 20, 2009 7:11 pm
 

The Original Tournament Formula says....

Alright I now have two formulas for this tournament. My first ever blog on this site was my formula. It correctly picked Kansas as the winner last year but my goal with the formula is to find a way to get every game correct. The adjustments I made for this year apparently haven't worked, as the old formula is currently doing better than the new one. I'm going to put up two blogs with each of the formulas in one.

Pick and roll...

Formula Factors

Leadership

  • 1 point for a freshman
  • 2 for a sophomore
  • 3 for a junior
  • 4 for a senior

Only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. Total these up and divide by the number of players

  • Ex. 1 freshmen (1 point) 4 juniors (12 points) 2 seniors (8 points)
    • total 21 points and 7 players, divide 21 by 7 and you get 3

Size

  • half a point for each starter that is 6'10" or taller
  • half a point for each starter over 225 pounds or heavier
  • 1 point for a starter that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • half a point for a bench contributor that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • one fourth point for each bench contributor 6"10" or taller
  • one forth point for each bench contributor that is 225 pounds or heavier

Again only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled.

Shooters

  • three forths of a point for each starter shooting over 40% from 3
  • half a point for each starter shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3
  • three eighths of a point for each bench contributer shooting above 40% from 3
  • one quarter point for each bench contributer shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3

Again counting only players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled as well.

Team 3pt%

  • subtract 30 from the team's overall 3pt% and divide by 2. Add this to the total

Team Free throw %

  • subtract 62 from the team's overall free throw % and divide by 3. Add this to the total

Scoring Margin

  • Divide a power conference team's scoring margin by 1.5. Add this to that team's total
    • Power Conference=Pac10, Big10, Big12, SEC, ACC, Big East
  • Divide a Major Conference team's scoring margin by 2. Add this to the team's total
    • Major Conference= Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Conference USA
  • Divide a Mid-Major conference team's scoring margin by 3. Add this to that team's total.
    • Mid-Major Conference =Sun Belt, Colonial, MAAC, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, WCC
  • Divide a small conference school's scoring margin by 4 and add this to their total
    • All other conferences are considered small

All of these factors combine to make a team's formula total

Formula top ten

  1. North Carolina1 seed South Region 24.276 points
  2. California 7 seed West Region 22.771 points
  3. UCLA 6 seed East Region 22.216 points
  4. Gonzaga 4 seed South Region 21.024 points
  5. Kansas 3 seed Midwest Region 20.883 points
  6.  N.D. State 14 seed Midwest Region 20.079 points
  7. Missouri 3 seed West Region 19.605 points
  8. BYU 8 seed West Region 19.571 points
  9. Villanova 3 seed East Region 19.068 points
  10. Pittsburgh 1 seed East Region 19.017 points

 

Everything below this line is last year's info, I'm not done yet . . . I'll finish tonight

 

 

Formula locks

(passed by a team that was not within 2.5 formula points of them)

  • Kansas to the Final 4
  • Wisconsin, Michigan State, and UCLA to the Elite 8
  • North Carolina, Xavier and Vanderbilt to the Sweet 16
  • Notre Dame, Washington State, Saint Joe's, Louisville, Clemson, Gonzaga, Oregon, Memphis, Pitt, Marquette, Miami, Texas, Drake, Uconn, and Duke to round 2

Upset Watch

(teams within 2.5 points of each other) top 4 seeds in bold

If a team is within 2.5 points of another team, this game could go either way, for the sake of this exercise I took the team with the higher rating.

First Round

  • 7. Butler 15.475, 10. South Alabama 15.186
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 15. American 16.225
  • 6. USC 14.714, 11. Kansas State 13.793
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 15. UMBC 16.135
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 14. Cornell 19.217
  • 11. Baylor 18.334, 6.Purdue 16. 697
  • 7. West Virginia 19.857, 10. Arizona 19.083

Second Round

  • 5. Notre Dame 22.707, 4. Washington State 21.817
  • 11. Saint Joe's 17.483, 3. Louisville 17.334
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 7. Gonzaga 17.697
  • 9. Oregon 16.39, 1. Memphis 15.9
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 6. Marquette 19.141
  • 2 Texas 20.659, 7. Miami 19.3
  • 5. Drake 18.569, 4. Uconn 17.746
  • 2. Duke 21. 98, 7. West Virginia 19. 857

Sweet 16

  • 1. North Carolina 25.142, 5. Notre Dame 22.707
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 11. St. Joe's 17.483
  • 2. Texas 20.659, 3. Stanford 19.892
  • 3. Xavier 22.408, 2 Duke 21.98

Elite 8

  • 2. Texas 20.659, 5. Michigan St. 20.645
  • 3 Xavier 22.408, 1. UCLA 22.304

Formula Final 4

  • East North Carolina
  • Midwest Kansas
  • South Texas
  • West Xavier

Championship game

  • Kansas
  • Xavier

Champion

Kansas Jayhawks

(note the only team within 2.5 formula points of Kansas was North Carolina)


If you like a team that is not mentioned and would like to know how they made out based on the formula, let me know

 

 
 
 
 
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