Tag:NCAA
Posted on: March 16, 2010 7:35 pm
 

Bib's NCAA Tournament Formula

Alright I now have three formulas for this tournament. My first ever blog on this site was my formula. It correctly picked Kansas as the winner 2 years ago and last year my formula picked North Carolina as the Winner but my goal with the formula is to find a way to get every game correct. As with anything you have to tweak it until you get it right so Ive done that. The formula you get the full breakdown for is my own original formula. The other two I may add later but i have other things going on . . . Enjoy, and COMMENT!

Pick and roll...

Formula Factors

Leadership

  • 1 point for a freshman
  • 2 for a sophomore
  • 3 for a junior
  • 4 for a senior

Only counting starting players. Total these up and divide by 5.

  • Ex. 1 freshmen (1 point) 2 juniors (6 points) 2 seniors (8 points)
    • total 15 points. divide 15 by 5 and you get 3 formula points.

NCAA Tournament Experience

  • 4 points if the team made the tournament last year
  • 2 points if the team made the tournament 2 years ago
  • 1 point if the team made the tournamet 3 years ago
  • add half a point for each tournament win

divide that number by 2 and add it in

  • Ex. Winthrop made the tournament 2 and 3 years ago. (3 points), they won one game (0.5 points). Divide 3.5 by 2 and that's 1.75 points

Gamebreakers  **NEW THIS YEAR**

  • 1.5 points per player who . . .

  1. averages 15+ points per game
  2. averages 20+ total points and rebounds
  3. averages 17.5+ points and assists

  • .75 points per player who . . .

  1. averages 9.5 points per game
  2. averages 15 points and revounds per game
  3. averages 13.5 points and assists per game
Add the total to the team's total

  • Ex. Winthrop has no players that fall into category 1 and two players that fall into category 2 so they'd get 1.5 points added to their total

Team 3pt%

  • subtract 30 from the team's overall 3pt% and divide by 3. (last year i divided by 2)

Team Free throw %

  • subtract 62 from the team's overall free throw % and divide by 5.(last year i divided by 3)

Scoring Margin

  • Team's average margin of victory divided by 3 . (last year i weighted it by strength of conference)

Rebound Margin

  • Team's rebounding Margin divided by 2

All of these factors combine to make a team's formula total

 

Formula top ten

  1. Kansas 1 seed Midwest Region 27.756 points

  2. Duke 1 seed South Region 26.973 points

  3. BYU 7 seed West Region 25.913 points

  4.   Xavier 6 seed West Region 23.226 points
  5. Villanova 2 seed South Region 22.736 points

  6. Cornell 12 seed East Region 22.713 points

  7. Baylor 3 seed South Region 22.356 points

  8. Michigan State 5 seed Midwest Region 22.333 points

  9. Utah State 12 seed South Region 22.28 points

  10. St. Mary's 10 seed South Region 22.166 points

I give a margin of error of 3 for any game, if the margin is larger than 3 I'll call it a lock, for the purposes of advancing teams Im using Win % in close games as the deciding factor for who wins when the margin is less than 3.

Formula locks

(When the first time a team will run into a team within 3 points of them )

  • Duke to the Title game
  • Kansas to the Final 4
  • Xavier, BYU, Marquette, West Virginia, Ohio State Sweet 16
There were a ton of second round locks, too many for me to put on here, you can ask though and I'll be glad to answer

Formula Final 4

Formula has all 1's to the final four because I used the win % in close games as the factor to decide a winner in matchups where the two teams are within 2.5 of each other. Im second guessing that decision but the damage is done lol . . . I'll do a bracket using the formula straight up and see what happens.

Championship game

  • Kansas
  • Duke

Champion

Kansas Jayhawks

(note the only teams within 2.5 formula points of Kansas were BYU and Duke)


If you like a team that is not mentioned and would like to know how they made out based on the formula, let me know

Posted on: March 20, 2009 7:11 pm
 

The Original Tournament Formula says....

Alright I now have two formulas for this tournament. My first ever blog on this site was my formula. It correctly picked Kansas as the winner last year but my goal with the formula is to find a way to get every game correct. The adjustments I made for this year apparently haven't worked, as the old formula is currently doing better than the new one. I'm going to put up two blogs with each of the formulas in one.

Pick and roll...

Formula Factors

Leadership

  • 1 point for a freshman
  • 2 for a sophomore
  • 3 for a junior
  • 4 for a senior

Only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. Total these up and divide by the number of players

  • Ex. 1 freshmen (1 point) 4 juniors (12 points) 2 seniors (8 points)
    • total 21 points and 7 players, divide 21 by 7 and you get 3

Size

  • half a point for each starter that is 6'10" or taller
  • half a point for each starter over 225 pounds or heavier
  • 1 point for a starter that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • half a point for a bench contributor that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • one fourth point for each bench contributor 6"10" or taller
  • one forth point for each bench contributor that is 225 pounds or heavier

Again only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled.

Shooters

  • three forths of a point for each starter shooting over 40% from 3
  • half a point for each starter shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3
  • three eighths of a point for each bench contributer shooting above 40% from 3
  • one quarter point for each bench contributer shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3

Again counting only players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled as well.

Team 3pt%

  • subtract 30 from the team's overall 3pt% and divide by 2. Add this to the total

Team Free throw %

  • subtract 62 from the team's overall free throw % and divide by 3. Add this to the total

Scoring Margin

  • Divide a power conference team's scoring margin by 1.5. Add this to that team's total
    • Power Conference=Pac10, Big10, Big12, SEC, ACC, Big East
  • Divide a Major Conference team's scoring margin by 2. Add this to the team's total
    • Major Conference= Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Conference USA
  • Divide a Mid-Major conference team's scoring margin by 3. Add this to that team's total.
    • Mid-Major Conference =Sun Belt, Colonial, MAAC, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, WCC
  • Divide a small conference school's scoring margin by 4 and add this to their total
    • All other conferences are considered small

All of these factors combine to make a team's formula total

Formula top ten

  1. North Carolina1 seed South Region 24.276 points
  2. California 7 seed West Region 22.771 points
  3. UCLA 6 seed East Region 22.216 points
  4. Gonzaga 4 seed South Region 21.024 points
  5. Kansas 3 seed Midwest Region 20.883 points
  6.  N.D. State 14 seed Midwest Region 20.079 points
  7. Missouri 3 seed West Region 19.605 points
  8. BYU 8 seed West Region 19.571 points
  9. Villanova 3 seed East Region 19.068 points
  10. Pittsburgh 1 seed East Region 19.017 points

 

Everything below this line is last year's info, I'm not done yet . . . I'll finish tonight

 

 

Formula locks

(passed by a team that was not within 2.5 formula points of them)

  • Kansas to the Final 4
  • Wisconsin, Michigan State, and UCLA to the Elite 8
  • North Carolina, Xavier and Vanderbilt to the Sweet 16
  • Notre Dame, Washington State, Saint Joe's, Louisville, Clemson, Gonzaga, Oregon, Memphis, Pitt, Marquette, Miami, Texas, Drake, Uconn, and Duke to round 2

Upset Watch

(teams within 2.5 points of each other) top 4 seeds in bold

If a team is within 2.5 points of another team, this game could go either way, for the sake of this exercise I took the team with the higher rating.

First Round

  • 7. Butler 15.475, 10. South Alabama 15.186
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 15. American 16.225
  • 6. USC 14.714, 11. Kansas State 13.793
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 15. UMBC 16.135
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 14. Cornell 19.217
  • 11. Baylor 18.334, 6.Purdue 16. 697
  • 7. West Virginia 19.857, 10. Arizona 19.083

Second Round

  • 5. Notre Dame 22.707, 4. Washington State 21.817
  • 11. Saint Joe's 17.483, 3. Louisville 17.334
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 7. Gonzaga 17.697
  • 9. Oregon 16.39, 1. Memphis 15.9
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 6. Marquette 19.141
  • 2 Texas 20.659, 7. Miami 19.3
  • 5. Drake 18.569, 4. Uconn 17.746
  • 2. Duke 21. 98, 7. West Virginia 19. 857

Sweet 16

  • 1. North Carolina 25.142, 5. Notre Dame 22.707
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 11. St. Joe's 17.483
  • 2. Texas 20.659, 3. Stanford 19.892
  • 3. Xavier 22.408, 2 Duke 21.98

Elite 8

  • 2. Texas 20.659, 5. Michigan St. 20.645
  • 3 Xavier 22.408, 1. UCLA 22.304

Formula Final 4

  • East North Carolina
  • Midwest Kansas
  • South Texas
  • West Xavier

Championship game

  • Kansas
  • Xavier

Champion

Kansas Jayhawks

(note the only team within 2.5 formula points of Kansas was North Carolina)


If you like a team that is not mentioned and would like to know how they made out based on the formula, let me know

 

Posted on: March 20, 2008 2:35 am
Edited on: March 20, 2008 3:03 pm
 

The Tournament Formula says....

Pick and roll...

Formula Factors

Leadership

  • 1 point for a freshman
  • 2 for a sophomore
  • 3 for a junior
  • 4 for a senior
Only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. Total these up and divide by the number of players
  • Ex. 1 freshmen (1 point) 4 juniors (12 points) 2 seniors (8 points)
    • total 21 points and 7 players, divide 21 by 7 and you get 3

Size

  • half a point for each starter that is 6'10" or taller
  • half a point for each starter over 225 pounds or heavier
  • 1 point for a starter that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • half a point for a bench contributor that is 6"10" or taller and 225 pounds or heavier
  • one fourth point for each bench contributor 6"10" or taller
  • one forth point for each bench contributor that is 225 pounds or heavier
Again only counting players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled.

Shooters

  • three forths of a point for each starter shooting over 40% from 3
  • half a point for each starter shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3
  • three eighths of a point for each bench contributer shooting above 40% from 3
  • one quarter point for each bench contributer shooting between 35% and 39.9% from 3
Again counting only players that played more than 10 minutes in the team's last close game. These are to be totaled as well.

Team 3pt%

  • subtract 30 from the team's overall 3pt% and divide by 2. Add this to the total

Team Free throw %

  • subtract 62 from the team's overall free throw % and divide by 3. Add this to the total

Scoring Margin

  • Divide a power conference team's scoring margin by 1.5. Add this to that team's total
    • Power Conference=Pac10, Big10, Big12, SEC, ACC, Big East
  • Divide a Major Conference team's scoring margin by 2. Add this to the team's total
    • Major Conference= Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Conference USA
  • Divide a Mid-Major conference team's scoring margin by 3. Add this to that team's total.
    • Mid-Major Conference =Sun Belt, Colonial, MAAC, Missouri Valley, MAC, WAC, WCC
  • Divide a small conference school's scoring margin by 4 and add this to their total
    • All other conferences are considered small
All of these factors combine to make a team's formula total

Formula top ten

  1. Kansas 1 seed Midwest Region 27.46 points
  2. North Carolina 1 seed East Region 25.142 points
  3. Notre Dame 5 seed East Region 22.707 points
  4. Xavier 3 seed West Region 22.408 points
  5. UCLA 1 seed West Region 22.304 points
  6. Duke 2 seed West Region 21.98 points
  7. Washington St. 4 seed East Region 21.817 points
  8. Wisconsin 3 seed Midwest Region 21.168 points
  9. Texas 2 seed South Region 20.659 points
  10. Michigan State 5 seed South Region 20.645 points

Formula locks

(passed by a team that was not within 2.5 formula points of them)

  • Kansas to the Final 4
  • Wisconsin, Michigan State, and UCLA to the Elite 8
  • North Carolina, Xavier and Vanderbilt to the Sweet 16
  • Notre Dame, Washington State, Saint Joe's, Louisville, Clemson, Gonzaga, Oregon, Memphis, Pitt, Marquette, Miami, Texas, Drake, Uconn, and Duke to round 2

Upset Watch

(teams within 2.5 points of each other) top 4 seeds in bold

If a team is within 2.5 points of another team, this game could go either way, for the sake of this exercise I took the team with the higher rating.

First Round

  • 7. Butler 15.475, 10. South Alabama 15.186
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 15. American 16.225
  • 6. USC 14.714, 11. Kansas State 13.793
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 15. UMBC 16.135
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 14. Cornell 19.217
  • 11. Baylor 18.334, 6.Purdue 16. 697
  • 7. West Virginia 19.857, 10. Arizona 19.083

Second Round

  • 5. Notre Dame 22.707, 4. Washington State 21.817
  • 11. Saint Joe's 17.483, 3. Louisville 17.334
  • 2. Georgetown 18.092, 7. Gonzaga 17.697
  • 9. Oregon 16.39, 1. Memphis 15.9
  • 3. Stanford 19.892, 6. Marquette 19.141
  • 2 Texas 20.659, 7. Miami 19.3
  • 5. Drake 18.569, 4. Uconn 17.746
  • 2. Duke 21. 98, 7. West Virginia 19. 857

Sweet 16

  • 1. North Carolina 25.142, 5. Notre Dame 22.707
  • 2. Tennessee 18.556, 11. St. Joe's 17.483
  • 2. Texas 20.659, 3. Stanford 19.892
  • 3. Xavier 22.408, 2 Duke 21.98

Elite 8

  • 2. Texas 20.659, 5. Michigan St. 20.645
  • 3 Xavier 22.408, 1. UCLA 22.304

Formula Final 4

  • East North Carolina
  • Midwest Kansas
  • South Texas
  • West Xavier

Championship game

  • Kansas
  • Xavier

Champion

Kansas Jayhawks

(note the only team within 2.5 formula points of Kansas was North Carolina)


If you like a team that is not mentioned and would like to know how they made out based on the formula, let me know




 
 
 
 
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