Posted on: March 16, 2010 7:35 pm

Bib's NCAA Tournament Formula

Alright I now have three formulas for this tournament. My first ever blog on this site was my formula. It correctly picked Kansas as the winner 2 years ago and last year my formula picked North Carolina as the Winner but my goal with the formula is to find a way to get every game correct. As with anything you have to tweak it until you get it right so Ive done that. The formula you get the full breakdown for is my own original formula. The other two I may add later but i have other things going on . . . Enjoy, and COMMENT!

Pick and roll...

Formula Factors


  • 1 point for a freshman
  • 2 for a sophomore
  • 3 for a junior
  • 4 for a senior

Only counting starting players. Total these up and divide by 5.

  • Ex. 1 freshmen (1 point) 2 juniors (6 points) 2 seniors (8 points)
    • total 15 points. divide 15 by 5 and you get 3 formula points.

NCAA Tournament Experience

  • 4 points if the team made the tournament last year
  • 2 points if the team made the tournament 2 years ago
  • 1 point if the team made the tournamet 3 years ago
  • add half a point for each tournament win

divide that number by 2 and add it in

  • Ex. Winthrop made the tournament 2 and 3 years ago. (3 points), they won one game (0.5 points). Divide 3.5 by 2 and that's 1.75 points

Gamebreakers  **NEW THIS YEAR**

  • 1.5 points per player who . . .

  1. averages 15+ points per game
  2. averages 20+ total points and rebounds
  3. averages 17.5+ points and assists

  • .75 points per player who . . .

  1. averages 9.5 points per game
  2. averages 15 points and revounds per game
  3. averages 13.5 points and assists per game
Add the total to the team's total

  • Ex. Winthrop has no players that fall into category 1 and two players that fall into category 2 so they'd get 1.5 points added to their total

Team 3pt%

  • subtract 30 from the team's overall 3pt% and divide by 3. (last year i divided by 2)

Team Free throw %

  • subtract 62 from the team's overall free throw % and divide by 5.(last year i divided by 3)

Scoring Margin

  • Team's average margin of victory divided by 3 . (last year i weighted it by strength of conference)

Rebound Margin

  • Team's rebounding Margin divided by 2

All of these factors combine to make a team's formula total


Formula top ten

  1. Kansas 1 seed Midwest Region 27.756 points

  2. Duke 1 seed South Region 26.973 points

  3. BYU 7 seed West Region 25.913 points

  4.   Xavier 6 seed West Region 23.226 points
  5. Villanova 2 seed South Region 22.736 points

  6. Cornell 12 seed East Region 22.713 points

  7. Baylor 3 seed South Region 22.356 points

  8. Michigan State 5 seed Midwest Region 22.333 points

  9. Utah State 12 seed South Region 22.28 points

  10. St. Mary's 10 seed South Region 22.166 points

I give a margin of error of 3 for any game, if the margin is larger than 3 I'll call it a lock, for the purposes of advancing teams Im using Win % in close games as the deciding factor for who wins when the margin is less than 3.

Formula locks

(When the first time a team will run into a team within 3 points of them )

  • Duke to the Title game
  • Kansas to the Final 4
  • Xavier, BYU, Marquette, West Virginia, Ohio State Sweet 16
There were a ton of second round locks, too many for me to put on here, you can ask though and I'll be glad to answer

Formula Final 4

Formula has all 1's to the final four because I used the win % in close games as the factor to decide a winner in matchups where the two teams are within 2.5 of each other. Im second guessing that decision but the damage is done lol . . . I'll do a bracket using the formula straight up and see what happens.

Championship game

  • Kansas
  • Duke


Kansas Jayhawks

(note the only teams within 2.5 formula points of Kansas were BYU and Duke)

If you like a team that is not mentioned and would like to know how they made out based on the formula, let me know

The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com